Why You Should Expect an AI Crash

Circular financing, without regard to technical limitations. We've known about this for a few years. Old news.

AI hype organizations like Latent Space (+ others) ban people who disrespect any aspect of AI today, and articles like this get buried.

It is going to break the back of SaaS. We can't outspend AI on infrastructure. We've had a global application deployed on GCP then AWS and I've never seen a stockout until this year, and now we get them so often we are being forced to reserve capacity. I also can't wrap my head around the basic economics. If you spend 10x yearly global gross revenue sales on building out infrastructure, software can only get more expensive to make.

Anyone got a gift link or archive?

Well, now the CFO is in charge of nVidia we may see some problems.

Because while a founder CEO can play fast and loose with gray finance rules, I don't expect an appointed CFO can do the same. At least not one that expects to work again if they are found liable for it. It is kind of interesting in this way that the board has made this choice. It almost says they are looking to insulate against some liability here.

It’s no longer smart to predict an AI bubble pop. The question is only when. Any article trying to sound smart without giving dates and justification for those dates isn’t saying anything.

I wake up, I read articles about how the AI crash is coming. I figure that it's not actually coming because everyone is talking about it, so it's priced in.

And then I pull up HN / LinkedIn / X / Substack where everyone is telling me that this is the new AI economy and the tech can't possibly flop, so I figure that the crash must be coming because there's too much optimism.

I go to sleep. Then I wake up and read...

I guess a broken clock is right two times a day, 14 times a week and 700+ times an year?

Great can't wait for GPU prices to come down.

In life, one should expect anything. In compute, one should expect zero.