Where's the "Intelligence Explosion"?

Great analysis. Clearly shows "advancement" is not exponential but logarithmic. Hence, "We need to slow down!!" as a cover for stagnating improvements.

Not where, when.

Asking where is the intelligence explosion suffers the same issue as the Gorman Paradox[1] - the question proceeded the explosion by six months. Timing explosions is like timing the market - infinitely harder than predicting eventual existence.

1. https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/12/14/the-gorman-para...

Just like when you upscale a picture 100 times by 200%, and then you zoom in and start seeing all these artifacts, so is the outcome of "recursive intelligence".

We are going to be stuck in a few years of delusion, but there will be some entertainment as a side effect. AI executives and researchers are going to delve even deeper into AI psychosis thinking that the equivalent of psychedelic trip-looking school buses at 4000x zoom of an orange cat's ass, except in the form of text, is actually something intelligent and we just don't have the capacity to understand the "super intelligence's thoughts", all the while pouring another few trillions.

I like Noah's blog in general (this is a guest post), but I think that trying to precisely time and phase a new technological development you are watching from within is a fool's errand.