The Coming War on General Computation (2011)

It looks like we're nearing the end of the personal computing era. Looks like they will get their way. Whether we're regulated out or priced out, it doesn't matter, the result is the same.

Profoundly sad.

All the crypto stuff already felt like it was doing a big push to move computing power away from general consumers, though may have been unintended.

Another thing is the general impoverishment and decline of productive power that can be papered over by centralizing the output of that production to hide the general decline. I don't think anybody is buying that we are richer than 20 years ago anymore.

Video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUEvRyemKSg

My take on this is the same as when an article by Doc Searls that references this speech by Doctorow came up on HN in 2019:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19862580

Don’t forget “computers that can do everything but run scary unregulated LLMs”

This is kind of obvious but, definitely something that should be on people's minds as things keep getting weirder.

It was bad enough when mobile phones were not forced to be dealt with as "general purpose computers", and instead were allowed to remain proprietary hardware/software combinations controlled by the tech oligarchy.

But now that RAM is not financially viable to deliver to consumers due to the obscene appetite of the LLM crowd, and fabs are developing custom silicon for the dumbest things of all "training LLMs", we are seeing at least the beginning of what it mean for "personal computers" to become emaciated to the point where chip companies can no longer justify making them for such measly profit and how difficult they will be to sell at such high prices if they incorporate high cost components.

We arent fully there yet but we are heading in that direction. The laptop Im typing this on cost 1600 dollars 8 months ago and now retails for 4 thousand dollars. In 6 more months it will either not be available or retail for 8 thousand.

Given that LLMs are convincing less experienced coders that code is a waste of time to write, the generational/knowledge gap that will create over time in the industry, software engineering could in essence become a niche reserved only for elites (if it will even be allowed) and end user software/hardware knowledge will be discouraged and considered threatening to the establishment.

Although there is a large knowledge base on the Internet (right now) the Internet is now under relentless and growing assault from AI bot farms referred to as agents, which are simultaneously making it less and less practical to maintain web sites and internet infrastructure due to increased costs, which could create a "lights out" situation for online documentation as the internet is choked off and dies in favor of MCP clients and servers which hide functionality behind obscure interfaces and website content ceases to be economically sustainable.

This will usher in a human "dark age", where the cost of information will be zero but the truth of anything if it existed previously will become unavailable to all but the very wealthy especially if it contradicts LLM sources. Otherwise, non AI sources of information will be stomped out and authoritarianism will rule over all government and peoples, unleashing perpetual war, famine and genocide.

But other than that it will be fine.