The AI Superforecasters Are Here

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it.

And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

I kinda like Taleb’s take on forecasters; get another job.

This new forecasting industry is pushed by very dirty people.

For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one

I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...