SpaceX S-1

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee"

Anthropic is paying them 1.25 billion per month to serve Claude in their data centers. That's more revenue than Starlink. In fact that's their largest revenue stream lol.

It’s surprising just how low the revenue is for SpaceX. There are some 700+ companies with larger revenue figures, and yet just a small handful exceed SpaceX’s proposed valuation.

In 2026 one gets the impression that SpaceX is a huge company, among the largest in the world. It’s wild to see that its business volume is smaller than Northrop, smaller than Apple’s peripherals alone, smaller than Avnet (heard of ‘em?).

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets.

2025:

- Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024

- Operating loss: -$2.6B

- Net loss: -$4.9B

- Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B

- Operating cash flow: $6.8B

- Capex: $20.7B

Segment breakdown:

- Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B adj. EBITDA

- Space / launch: $4.1B revenue, -$657M operating loss

- AI / xAI / X: $3.2B revenue, -$6.4B operating loss

Starlink metrics:

- Subscribers: 8.9M at end-2025, 10.3M by Mar 31 2026

- ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026

Balance sheet as of Mar 31 2026:

- Cash: $15.9B

- Marketable securities: $7.8B

- Total assets: $102.1B

- Total liabilities: $60.5B

- Debt / finance leases: about $30.3B

If any company can put profitable data centers in space, it will be SpaceX. But I doubt that any company can. The difficulties of the physics and engineering of cooling seem like they will always outweigh the advantages of keeping your data center on Earth.

I am annoyed by the insistence that the value of this company comes from something that no one has been able to show is possible yet without multiplying it by the obvious risk factor. And they seem to have got other companies like Alphabet[1] and Anthropic to publicize the idea, to give it more credibility.

I do not want my pension to automatically buy shares at $1T, but it looks like it will have no choice.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/science/google-spacex-talks-explore-...

[2] https://spacenews.com/anthropic-to-consider-using-spacex-orb...

SpaceX is incredibly exciting, but I was skeptical when XAI and Twitter were rolled into it. The S-1 here makes it even more disappointing.

I did want a piece of SpaceX but the valuation here is pretty eye watering compared to the fundamentals. I don't think I can put my money into this, although I suspect it will still do gangbusters based on hype and momentum.

Its also a real shame that SpaceX's competitors have not been able to get the same level of momentum. I know Starship has been delayed but its still hard to argue with total mass to orbit they're achieving right now.

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ?

Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year.

I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

148 mentions of "rocket". 773 mentions of " AI ".

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI number is insane.

So this confirms that SpaceX was making a lot of cash and plowing it back into R&D, and that the X/Twitter/xAI merger is concrete shoes on the good parts.

They make some incredibly outlandish claims over their total addressable market, one can only wonder where $26 trillion dollars in expected AI revenue would even come from, with 22T of that being from "enterprise" when they have no real products yet.

The whole thing looks to be proped up by Starlink which seems to be a genuinely solid business. xAI looks to be costing twice as much as it produces, and we dont even have good numbers for this yet since the deal is so new. This feels like WeWork but if WeWork also owned a successful coffee shop.

Is there any risk to SpaceX that the Musk brand pulls the market cap too far ahead?

It's not a risk factor I see in the prospectus but seems plausible to me.

Just like with the AI company vesting, I imagine a scenario where a company seeds its own competition by realizing the monetary gains before the work is done. Maybe there's precedent in the dot com bubble. Certainly people were able to sell before the dip a la Cuban and broadcast.com. But I'm thinking more more specifically inducing competitive space ventures.

Am I reading this right?

SpaceX TAM - "Enterprise AI Applications" is 6T. The other 22T enterprise AI. This is a rocket company pretending it's a frontier AI lab.

"We do not anticipate declaring or paying any cash dividends to holders of our common stock in the foreseeable future."

Sounds like 'never' to me.

Perhaps related:

* "SpaceX IPO Scandal": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47388640

* "SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47648226

So, a significant amount of self-dealing, and Elon Musk has an 85.1% voting share in the company. That sounds like a really great thing. There is no sarcasm in that previous statement. None at all.

Now that the paperwork is out, can anyone confirm this earlier report "Report: SpaceX IPO gives Musk unchecked power and forbids investor lawsuits":

* https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/report-spacex-ip...