AI, Unemployment and Work

This is a "wishful thinking" take that ignores a brutal reality: AI isn’t just a tool; it’s raising the cognitive floor for employment. We are rapidly approaching a point where the baseline IQ required to contribute at all will surpass the capabilities of a huge segment of the population. And that floor is rising.

You can already see the decoupling: Mag7 hiring has flatlined while their AI capex hits the moon. Even the "brightest minds" are being replaced by the hardware they built. No amount of policy or interest rate maneuvering can stop this shift because you can't legislate away the fact that human labor is becoming an inferior good.

The assumption that this shift can be evenly distributed and broadly wiped away via policy tools is asinine.

This time IS different.

Sidenote: This is exactly why I’m so bullish on risk assets—we are transitioning into an economy where capital no longer needs to drag the weight of a massive, increasingly "useless" workforce, and the policy responses will actually exacerbate the shift (ie. rates down on unemployment = assets up)

I’m getting sick of these broad sweeping statements about where things are heading.

Ive never seen someone put together a well formed argument that is rich in depth and play it through - I get that this requires vision and most don’t have it - but at the same time I’d wish people would shut up if they have nothing new to contribute.

Not to mention the bizarro economists were completely wrong about prediction re. The impact of the web.

[flagged]