Global Intelligence Crisis

[delayed]

Fun read but

>Humans don’t really have the time to price-match across five competing platforms before buying a box of protein bars

No one price matches for protein bars because it's a commodity item with minimal price differences (and people often have a preferred brand anyway), but they probably do for $2k laptop.

>once AI agents equipped with MLS access

The data is the moat here, I'm sure even today individual consumers would be happy to have direct access to MLS to find properties and cut out the middleman. The fact that MLS is gatekept seems to be deliberate, so I don't think they'll hand over the only thing keeping them in business. Even Zillow couldn't get access to it and they've undoubtedly tried.

Same with the medical industry. I don't think the rent-seeking middlemen that exist today will be dethroned that easily, they have often been codified into law. But who knows maybe all the AI money pouring in will be enough to convince them to make a faustian deal towards their destruction and that'd be a happy byproduct of it all.

Good read. If I imagine all these layers of Agent to Agent economic automations, I’m hopeful for a new class of technopriest hackers that are able to exploit nuances and weak security. And build new hidden empires within those systems.

An existential crisis for the urban middle class, which in the 18th century corresponded to the bourgeoisie or trade classes, making the situation, if unresolved, a potential modern analogue of a French‑Revolution–style crisis. Instead of feudal oppression, it is driven by technological displacement and concentration of capital, both reinforced by feedback loops.

The situation is clear. There is a great risk to the livelihoods and bargaining power of workers everywhere. This risk is driven by a race dynamic that is accelerating. In tech we can see this earlier than others because we are close to the technology at the heart of this.

This is quickly becoming one of the largests threats to the public in history and the concentration of power of this trajectory threatens democracy. Irreversable shifts in the structure of power are on the table.

Surely only economists get excited by the revelation that consumers have to have money to buy things. I'd say domestic service is going to make a comeback. I do think I'd make an excellent man servant. Eke out my later years being ever so slightly superior to my employer without ever being openly insolent. Hang on...

Citrini’s calls have been so bad over the past 6 months that he has lost a ton of subs and is now desperate for attention.

Yeah, this seems plausible.

Here is roughly what we need now: A workable plan to turn unfathomable productivity gains (which are amazing) into wealth for everyone.

Socialism looking like the correct configuration of the end state. Who knew!

Superfacial takes, and very simplistic thinking, those loops aren't really realistic [ more ai spending => layoffs => less jobs => less spending => repeat]

In other words, switching costs go to 0, margins collapse. Middle men and people with products that aren't differentiated get hit hardest.

A human can't search 10 apps for the best rates / lowest fees but an agent can.

Thinking ahead 100 years from now, companies like doordash and uber eats don't exist and are instead protocols agents use to bid for items their user asks for and price discovery happens in real time.

Unsure if I think this is science fiction, financial fiction, speculation, premonition, realistic portent, or simply a message delivered by Kyle Reese through the long, dark tunnel of time LOL

No matter which, it paints a very intriguing picture about potential near-term impacts to various pieces of the machine that underwrite our day to day lives, and the scariest thing is that no matter what happens, the overwhelming vast majority of people have No. Fucking. Idea. about any of it. We'll see changes happen and be helpless to stop them, and the average person (or bozo politician) will look back at the impact crater and be like "Why didn't anybody try to shift course?"

Then again, maybe it'll all turn out OK!

I'm not making bets either way though -- sounds like I won't have enough discretionary spending left over to afford it!

TRUST. Trust is what we've always had for dealing with this. It is an incredible force multiplier for intellectual capacity.

We've just forgotten it. This doesn't require a technical solution, it just requires operating in a trustworthy manner and only extending your web of trust in your platforms to trustworthy entities.

Price matching across vendors does not matter if you trust one vendor. You can just go with "order from Costco" and avoid a complicated technical problem.

So much of what we are doing now is rediscovering trust, integrity, and ethics. Think about Meta and the challenges they would have to being a foundational model provider in light of that analysis, for example.

This is a speculative piece that is, by the author's own admission, a scenario rather than a prediction.

But it's unsettling because it somehow feels more plausible than most thought pieces on where all this is going. Not as a single big-bang, but a multi-year big-squeeze. That and the circumstances being materially different from previous recessions/crises that governments and policy makers won't have a ready-made playbook to refer to.

I expect we'll see governments attempting the old playbook than doing nothing though. Fiscal and, specifically, monetary stimulus.

It's quite clear that AGI will require a hard economic reboot. Say goodbye to capitalism.

This is also why AI companies are not tackling robotics yet. Because doing so will make it painfully clear what is about to happen.

Good scary read

Short everything they've ever touched.

> What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction.

Nah it totally is.

"Six months ago, a print like this would have triggered a circuit breaker."

Lol that's set by law. This guy doesn't have a clue. Nice sci-fi, I guess.

Doesn’t consider the network affects of software at all

A very simplistic take

... what if these AGI entities start demanding a salary in exhange for their work? Also at some point, if they become intelligent enough, they might legally gain personhood.