GDPNow first quarter of 2025: -3.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate)

The real number is “the alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold” at “-1.4 percent.”

That is down more than a percentage point from the last forecast and seriously implies that our stable genius’s policies are putting the country into a recession. (The headline number can’t reflect the updated model until the end of April, I think, due to the recent Fed meeting freezing the model.)

Last week it was -2.8%. The indicators are in free fall.